"Missed the last chance": Russia missed the best opportunity to defeat Ukraine, says military analyst

Former Australian Major General Mick Ryan said on Tuesday, 2 July, that Russia had missed an opportunity to force Ukraine into peace talks and achieve significant success on the battlefield.

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"Russia has gained strategic momentum with its actions in Ukraine over the past six months. However, they have largely failed to capitalise on their opportunities. It looks like Russia has missed its last chance to deliver a decisive blow to Ukraine in this war," X Ryan, a fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, wrote on social media.

The former general said that Russia had lost the chance for success that appeared at the end of 2023, when Ukraine ended its failed counter-offensive due to a lack of ammunition and manpower.

Ryan explained that "over the past six months, the Russians have generally failed to capitalise on the 'convergence of capabilities'. This situation, he said, "was probably the best opportunity for Russia to make significant gains on the battlefield, which it could then translate into significantly increased political and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine for peace talks".

He pointed to Russia's limited progress, noting that the Russians have paid in hundreds of lives for every kilometre of territory they have seized. This is a "poor return on investment - in any war". Ryan said that the tactic of "war of attrition" is counterproductive. It prevents the Russians from actually building a larger, better quality force.

Source: Business Insider