Think Tank: In the war for Taiwan, the US may fight China without its main allies

According to a new RAND analysis, if the United States decides to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, it may have to do so on its own.

Here's What We Know

Several of America's biggest allies are unlikely to send troops to rescue Taiwan because they lack military capabilities or because they do not want to start an all-out war with an increasingly powerful China.

The US think tank RAND surveyed experts in four countries and concluded that for Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada, assistance "would be limited to diplomatic support for Taiwan and endorsement of likely US sanctions against China".

"Our respondents believe that the US will receive logistical support from other countries, but its forces will have to respond to China's invasion on their own," said Rafik Dossani, senior economist at RAND.

However, according to the company, the role of Japan and Australia will be greater, as they may have to use their navies to help the Americans break the Chinese blockade of Taiwan.

For example, Canada may not be able or willing to rush to Taiwan's defence. However, for Japan, whose security would be seriously affected by a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, the issue is more complicated.

"Despite its military power, commitment to the region, and U.S. support, Japanese pacifism (both popular and constitutional) and fear of retaliatory attack from China would likely limit Japan's military support for Taiwan to perhaps only logistics and supplies," RAND explained.

Source: RAND