EA predicts Spain to win the 2026 World Cup — and it's been right four times in a row

By: Anton Kratiuk | today, 17:24

EA Sports has run its pre-tournament simulation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup and landed on Spain as champion. The prediction uses the player database from EA Sports FC 26 — one of the most detailed in the games industry — to simulate all 104 matches across the group stage and knockout rounds. With the tournament kicking off on June 11 across the US, Canada, and Mexico, the timing gives fans plenty to argue about.

The streak

EA has been doing this since 2010, and its record on men's World Cups is genuinely striking: Spain 2010, Germany 2014, France 2018, Argentina 2022 — four correct calls in a row, per Video Games Chronicle. The simulation scores players across dozens of attributes — pace, stamina, passing accuracy, finishing — then runs the bracket. Spain enters as the reigning Euro 2024 champions, and the model also projects 18-year-old Lamine Yamal as the tournament's top scorer.

Betting markets back the pick. Spain sits at +450 across major US sportsbooks, according to CBS Sports, making them the clear favorite. France is close behind at +470, with England at +650 and Brazil at +850.

The catch

EA's record is not spotless. At Euro 2024, the simulation predicted England as champion — Spain won it. The same model tipped the US women's team to win the 2023 Women's World Cup; they were knocked out early, and Spain won again. Go back further and the 2006 World Cup simulation called Czech Republic as champion; Italy took the title.

Worth noting: EA lost its official FIFA World Cup license in 2023. This prediction runs inside EA FC 26's "The World's Game" mode, not a dedicated World Cup title — so it's more of a promotional exercise than an official tie-in.

Worth watching

Four consecutive correct World Cup picks is a hard number to dismiss, even if the underlying logic is "a video game said so." The 2026 tournament also uses an expanded 48-team format for the first time, which adds more matches and more potential for upsets — a variable the algorithm hasn't had to deal with before.

Spain winning would match their only previous World Cup title in 2010, the same year EA's prediction streak began. Make of that what you will.