RAM and storage prices are set to surge — and there's no relief until 2028

If you've been putting off upgrading your laptop or phone, the window to buy at today's prices is closing fast. Wall Street firm Jefferies is forecasting memory chip prices will jump 40–50% in Q3 2026 compared to the previous quarter, with a further 30–40% rise expected in Q4. By 2027, annual DRAM price increases could hit 40–45%. The only meaningful relief — a modest 15–20% moderation — isn't expected until 2028, and even that won't bring prices back to where they were.

The AI connection

The culprit is demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) — the specialized, high-speed chips that power AI servers at companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. Chipmakers such as Samsung and SK Hynix are reorienting production lines toward HBM because it commands far higher margins. That leaves conventional DRAM and NAND flash — the memory inside your phone, laptop, and SSD — with shrinking supply. Cloud providers have already locked in 50–70% of global memory capacity through multi-year contracts, according to Wccftech's Jefferies coverage. Consumer electronics buyers are left competing for what remains on the spot market.

This shortage is structural, not cyclical. New fab capacity won't come online until late 2027 at the earliest. Jefferies' projections are notably more aggressive than rival firm Aletheia Capital, which had forecast a 30% rise in Q3 and just 10–15% in Q4 — Jefferies has essentially doubled those expectations.

What it means for your devices

The impact is already showing up at retail. Memory and storage now account for roughly 35% of a notebook's bill of materials, up from 15–18% in 2025, per ERSA Electronics. Lenovo, HP, and Acer all pushed through price adjustments by March 2026. Samsung's Galaxy S26 launched at a 5–10% premium in the UK versus its predecessor — and the S27, expected in early 2027, is unlikely to reverse that trend even with a genuine tech upgrade.

That upgrade is Samsung's newly announced UFS 5.0 storage standard: 10.8 GB/s read speeds and 40% better power efficiency, with mass production starting Q4 2026. It's a real improvement. But better specs in a supply-constrained market means higher prices, not lower ones — and mid-range devices may quietly lose RAM or storage capacity to keep sticker prices in check.

The bottom line

Analysts tracked by Sourceability documented an 80–90% cumulative surge in memory prices across Q1 2026 alone. If your current device is holding up, now is a reasonable time to keep it. If you need to buy, sooner is cheaper than later — the price curve points sharply upward through at least 2027.