New poll shows that Ukrainians believe in victory and are ready to fight on, despite the fact that the war has reached a deadlock

A poll conducted by the Ukrainian sociological research company Rating showed that half of Ukrainians believe that the war with Russia has reached a deadlock.

Here's What We Know

Approximately half of Ukrainians believe that the war with Russia has reached a stalemate, however, almost three-quarters said they are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that Ukraine will "eventually liberate all its territories".

The poll, sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and conducted by the Ukrainian sociological company Rating, is one of the largest snapshots of public opinion in Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The survey involved 2,000 people in all regions of Ukraine, but not in the Russian-occupied territories or abroad. The overall margin of error of the poll was 2.2 per cent, according to the poll organisers.

The poll was conducted in March, shortly after Ukrainian forces retreated from Avdiivka. Since then, Russia has also launched a new offensive in the Kharkiv region. Overall, the poll, which was released these days, found that Ukrainians strongly support the fighting and that there is a great deal of reluctance to accept Russia's basic demands.

According to Eric Ciaramella, one of the main researchers, the results showed "a significant degree of national unity".

Some 44 per cent of respondents said neither Ukraine nor Russia would win the war, while 41 per cent said Ukraine would win and only 5 per cent said Russia would win. However, according to Charamella, these views do not "translate into a willingness to give in to Russia's key demands". He added: "The resilience factor is still there in a surprising way."

Overall, 73 per cent of respondents were "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that Ukraine would "eventually liberate all its territories", while 59 per cent said they believed the war would last less than a year or one to two years.

Interestingly, the survey also revealed striking differences between age groups: older Ukrainians are more optimistic about Ukraine's chances of winning militarily and less willing to compromise with Russia. Approximately 54% of respondents over 60 said that Ukraine would win the war, while only 31% of those aged 18-25 believed the same. In addition, 60% of the older group said that Ukraine should not negotiate peace with Russia, compared to 47% of the younger group.

"Older people have changed their views," said Tatyana Skrypchenko, a researcher at the sociological company, "They believe that we should fight to the end, join NATO and not negotiate.

Source: Carnegie Endowment