It produces less than it admits: EU overestimates its munitions production capacity by half

According to a new investigation by Skhemy, Europe's claims about its ability to produce artillery shells are extremely overstated and it cannot supply Ukraine with even the approximate amount of ammunition it has promised.

Here's What We Know

The European Commission claimed that as of January this year, Europe's annual capacity to produce 155mm shells had reached one million shells per year. This was followed in June by EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton saying that the bloc plans to produce 1.7 million shells a year by the end of 2024.

But a consortium of editors, including Radio Free Europe and Die Welt, who spoke to manufacturers, experts and government officials, said in an investigation published on Monday that these claims are far from reality.

An internal document from Rheinmetall, Germany's flagship arms manufacturer and one of the largest in Europe, said annual production of 155mm rounds in the EU at the start of the year was around 550,000 units.

This is in line with a report published in late 2023 by the Estonian Ministry of Defence, which estimated that total production for that year was between 480,000 and 700,000 rounds, a significant difference from the European Commission's claims.

A source familiar with the matter told investigative journalists that Europe will produce less than half a million shells by the end of the year, and said that the idea of the EU pretending they can do more is a bad one.

The report identified numerous factors contributing to the shortfall, including a global gunpowder shortage and a lack of long-term contracts with governments to encourage increased production.

European Commission spokeswoman Johanna Bernsel told Business Insider that it stood by its estimate "under realistic operating conditions, in response to orders received". She added that the estimates are based on data from EU member states and industry. Bernsel also said that not all information is disclosed to the media for security reasons.

155mm shells have been a crucial product for both sides of the conflict in Ukraine. According to internal estimates seen by Bloomberg, as of January, Ukrainian forces were firing about 200,000 of them per month. In addition, as of May, Russia could produce artillery shells about three times faster than Ukraine's allies could and at a quarter of the cost, according to Sky News.

Source: Radio Svoboda