Programmers vs AI coding tools - who actually writes better code and will we still have jobs in 5 years?

Just finished 6mo evaluation of copilot integration, across 280 engineers. Productivity metrics all over place - seniors 22% boost on avg, juniors basically writing unmaintainable garbage faster. Tool amplifies existing skill gap rather than closing it

The whole "AI code will replace programmers" premise fundamentally misunderstands software engineering. Writing code = maybe 30% of job. Rest = figuring out WHAT to build + complex biz requirements + debugging production issues + navigating team dynamics. Tools augment but can't replace

What's scary is watching new devs paste AI solutions they don't understand into production. Ask them to explain their implementation? Blank stares. Try debugging without AI? complete panic. This generation never learned how to reason through logic problems from scratch

AI already killed my first dev job. startup CTO realized he could get by with 2 senior devs + copilot instead of 2 seniors + 4 junior/mid level devs like they had before. Layoffs came fast. 9 months later company imploded because seniors couldn't maintain everything but managers didn't learn lesson

Current impact vastly overhyped, long-term impact vastly underestimated. Right now it's fancy autocomplete, but in 5 years? Different story. adapt or become obsolete–harsh but reality

Roles that require managing extensive technical debt and understanding legacy codebases remain largely immune to AI replacement. Contrast that with greenfield development following established patterns where AI tools shine brightest

ppl acting like we haven't been through this before? every tech advance supposedly "ending programming" - low-code platforms, outsourcing, drag-drop builders, code generators... yet dev jobs keep growing. tools change, fundamentals don't

Quit enterprise job to freelance assuming AI would help me handle more clients. Reality check: spend MORE time fixing hallucinated edge cases and security holes than if I'd just written everything myself. Might work great for trivial tasks tho

Completely transformed how I teach CS intro courses. First years now create impressive projects immediately which boosts confidence, but struggle with fundamentals later when concepts get complex. Educational paradigm needs complete reinvention

Been screening candidates for 12 years & never seen skill gap this wide. Impressive resumes turn into train wrecks when we disable internet during technical portion. Had applicant literally unable to write a for-loop without assistance last week

Junior devs today have no idea how good they have it. Spent early career memorizing obscure API docs and writing boilerplate for WEEKS. Now that stuff takes minutes. Fear is misplaced - we're entering golden age of creativity where machines handle tedium, humans handle innovation

Watching our team split into two camps this year: some leveraging AI to tackle harder problems & deliver insane value, others becoming helplessly dependent on it for even basic tasks. Genuinely concerned about this widening gap

Biggest threat isn't AI replacing programmers - it's economic devaluation through perception. CEOs thinking "if AI writes code, why do developers cost so much?" Leading to salary compression despite actual complexity remaining. Already seeing this in compensation discussions