GTA VI Could Earn Rockstar $5.2 Billion in Its First Week
GTA VI is shaping up to be the biggest entertainment launch in history — on paper, at least. Analyst firm Newzoo projects that Rockstar's long-awaited sequel will generate between $3.25 billion and $5.2 billion in its first week on sale. What makes that number striking: the full marketing campaign hasn't started, no gameplay footage has been shown, and the bulk of the pre-order curve is still ahead.
The numbers behind the forecast
Newzoo tracked the first week of pre-orders and found that buyers in the US and the five largest European markets alone spent roughly $180 million. Add in the rest of the world and that figure climbs to around $260 million — a pre-order record with no close rival, per Insider Gaming.
Using what Newzoo calls its "Proven Sequel" model — a curve built on historical data from comparable franchise entries — the firm estimates 37 to 51 million copies sold in launch week alone, at a weighted average price of $85 to $88 per unit. That weighted average reflects buyers skewing toward the pricier Ultimate Edition.
On pricing: the Standard Edition is priced at £69.99 / $79.99, and the Ultimate Edition at £89.99 / $99.99, via T3. Neither tier crossed the feared £100-plus threshold, keeping them in line with current AAA pricing norms — though they still represent the highest launch price for a GTA title.
What the viral claims got wrong
A widely shared figure claimed 39 million copies were pre-sold in a single day. Newzoo explicitly pushed back on that: the 39 million figure refers to projected first-year sales, not a single-day pre-order count. Similarly, reports of $1 billion in pre-orders in the first hour have no support in historical pre-order curves for any title, franchise sequel or otherwise.
The actual pre-order ramp is still in its early stages — Newzoo notes the game sits roughly 21 weeks out from launch, a point where most comparable titles had a fraction of their eventual pre-orders in place.
What's next
GTA VI launches November 19 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S. A PC release has not been announced. Rockstar has yet to release any gameplay trailer, meaning the pre-order velocity recorded so far was driven almost entirely by screenshots and brand recognition alone. When a full campaign does arrive, Newzoo's upper-end $5.2 billion projection stops looking like a stretch.
