EU's break from Chinese tech could cost $433 billion — and that number comes with an asterisk
Phasing Chinese technology out of Europe's critical infrastructure could cost the EU more than $433 billion between 2026 and 2030, according to a new study — but the organisation that paid for it has a strong interest in that number being as large as possible.
The report was commissioned by the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU), the official body representing Chinese commercial interests in Brussels, and produced by KPMG. It covers 18 sectors including telecoms and energy, and estimates total replacement costs at €367.8 billion ($433bn). The trigger is the EU's proposed revision of its Cybersecurity Act (CSA2), which would impose stricter rules on "high-risk" vendors — a label Brussels has effectively applied to Huawei and ZTE.
The lobbying context
The study's provenance matters. The CCCEU is not a neutral think tank; it is an advocacy body funded by Chinese state-linked commercial interests. KPMG was hired to produce the analysis on its behalf. That does not make the numbers fabricated, but it does mean they represent an upper-end projection designed to give European policymakers pause — not an independent cost assessment. The European Commission's own impact study, expected in 2026, will be the real test of these figures, per The Next Web.
That said, the structural replacement problem is real. The EU Institute for Security Studies has separately acknowledged that legacy network equipment and grid components cannot be swapped out quickly or cheaply. Europe's 36-month removal window for Huawei's 5G equipment is already running against supply chain bottlenecks and a shortage of qualified alternatives at scale.
Germany carries half the bill
The country with the most exposure is Germany. The study puts Berlin's share at €170.8 billion — nearly 50% of the entire EU total — reflecting just how deeply Chinese suppliers are embedded in German telecoms and manufacturing. Huawei supplied 59% of Germany's 5G radio access network equipment in 2022, reports Reuters. Replacing that infrastructure, while simultaneously writing down existing assets and absorbing efficiency losses during transition, is what drives the outsized figure.
Five other countries each face costs above €10 billion: France (€46bn), Italy (€37bn), Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands. For all of them, the challenge is not just money — it is finding European, Japanese, or South Korean suppliers capable of delivering at the required volume and speed.
What happens next
China has warned it could retaliate with countermeasures if CSA2 advances in its current form. The Commission has not published a binding removal deadline, and the regulation could yet be softened through the legislative process. Until Brussels releases its own cost analysis, the $433 billion figure will dominate headlines — which is exactly what it was designed to do.
